上海合作组织框架内中国国际贸易竞争力实证分析

在经济全球化和一体化趋势下,上海合作组织的经济功能显得日益重要。基于上海合作组织这一强大的平台,中国与中亚国家的双边贸易日益增强,但竞争力依然有限。本文借助市场占有率指数和贸易竞争力优势指数（trade competitiveness,TC）等分析工具,对1996年以来中国与俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦三国贸易数据进行了定量分析,并衡量了中国与这三国不同产业的产业内贸易程度、比较优势和国际竞争力,得出中国的劳动密集型产业具有较强的优势,应进一步加强与中亚国家的能源开发与合作。     

How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture

To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items.We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%.     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

都市圈经济辐射效应的协方差分析——以上海都市圈为例

基于县级市数据,通过协方差分析等统计方法,研究了上海都市圈内中心城市对周边城市的经济辐射效应以及对相关市场的带动效应。结论表明,上海对其都市圈内的城市有显著的经济辐射效应,对相关市场的带动效应明显。     

商部的设立与清末农业的振兴

清末时期,面对传统农业的困境和西方对中国农业的冲击,商部(农工商部)作为新设的专门管理全国实业的中央机构,采取了调查农情,重视垦荒种植,改良棉业,提倡蚕桑,振兴茶业,讲求农学,劝设农事试验场,劝办农会等一系列政策措施,促进了清末农业的发展,推动了中国农业现代化进程。     

Agricultural extension system reform and agent time allocation in China

We conducted a nationally representative survey to measure the impact of China's institutional reforms in public agricultural extension on the time allocation of its one million agricultural extension agents. We found that Chinese agents spent much less time than their titles would suggest on providing agricultural extension services, and that agents whose base salaries were funded fully or partially by commercial activities spent substantially less time serving farmers. The institutional incentives associated with the source of funding have a much larger effect on agent time allocation than do the levels of funding. We conclude that the recent government policy to separate commercial activities from extension services is a step in the right direction and should be expanded. The results also suggest that, at least for agricultural extension, the goal of many national governments and international donors to develop locally financing institutions to sustain development projects may be misguided.     

“设计陈述”也要设计——2010年上海世博会广西馆概念性策划方案的“设计陈述”剖析

工程项目设计不但要设计图纸，而且要设计“设计陈述”。以参加“2010年上海世博会广西馆概念性策划方案”的“设计陈述”为例，剖析如何通过设计演讲、标书、展板、光碟等多种“设计陈述”方式，积极促进工程项目业主及相关各方对项目方案设计图纸的理解与认可。“设计陈述”是完成设计工作不可或缺的一个重要组成部分，对进行设计沟通及实现设计价值影响颇深。     

关于我国农业保险法律制度建设的思考

一个国家农业的发展与农业保险的开展有着密切的联系,而农业保险的开展又得益于其法律、法规的完善。迄今为止,我国农业保险仍在低谷徘徊,究其原因:很大程度就是农业保险的发展没有法律的规制与保障。因此,发展农业保险,建立健全农业保险法律保障机制已迫在眉睫。     

民间金融兴盛的制度供求分析——以上海钱庄为例

本文运用新制度经济学供求理论分析,指出上海钱庄兴盛的原因是:在需求诱致型金融制度环境中,由旅沪宁绍帮为主的商帮作为初级行动团体,上海钱业公会作为次级行动团体,二者共同进行适应商业习惯制度创新的结果。     

大型事件对旅游上市公司经营业绩的影响研究——基于因子模糊综合评价法

基于因子模糊综合评价法，以上海世博会为例，选取2002－2011年长三角旅游上市公司面板数据为样本，研究大型事件对微观企业经营业绩的影响。结果表明，短期的大型事件对上市公司影响十分有限。这一结论对于今后旅游企业如何参与事件，把握事件所带来的机会并从中获得收益具有一定的借鉴意义．